I was unaware Shane Graham can’t make a 35 yard fg let alone a 28.  I didn’t know Carson Palmer was so bad, that Laverneos Coles can’t hold onto the ball.  Unfucking real.  This game would have been fine without that fumble on the first drive.

Overall 1.0 units on Phili +4

.5 Phili/Dal over 45.5: The reason I bet Phili is because I expect the Eagles offense to put up points.  I expect the Eagles to get at least 20 so I like the over I guess.

Add .5
Cinci 1.5@ -2.  1.0 @ -2.5.

Add

.5 Units to Cinci -2.5:  1.5 units at -2; .5 at 2.5.

.5 units

Phili +4:  I just don’t see this game playing out the same way it did in Week 17.  First, the Eagles were down 14-0 and about to score a TD when they fumbled due to the new starting center for the Eagles.  That won’t happen again as it was fluky and the first week with the new center.  Second, McNabb is due to hit one of his youngster WR’s for a long TD.  He just missed them on numerous chances.  This is the same game as last week but you get an extra point on phili.  I like taking the 4.  Dallas coud easily win by a FG or some score like 28-24, 31-27 etc.  This is how I mentally looked at this game.  About a 40% chance Phili wins outright.  About a 15% chance that the Boys win by 1, 2, or 3.  And about a 10% chance the game pushes.  Therefore, I estimate there is only a 35% chance of a loss on this bet, which is good odds.

1.5 Units

Cinci -2:  I absolutely love Cinci in this spot.   In fact, I might put more on this game by gametime.  The Jets are not a playoff worthy team and by far and away the worst team in the playoffs.  They backed their way in by beating the Colts after they pulled Manning and a Cinci team who just didn’t care.  First, Cinci rush D has been awesome all year round.  One of the top 5 rush defenses for the majority of the season.  In the week 17 game DL Geathers and Peko didn’t play.  They both practiced in full today and will play and both are very effective against the run.  The Jets run game will struggle and Sanchez will not be able to beet the Bengals secondary led by Leon Hall.  I expect Sanchez to have two bad turnovers in this game.  On the flip side of the ball, the Bengals offense runs through Benson.  I expect Benson to be relatively effective with a weeks rest against the Jets rush D.  This will open things up for Carson Palmer.  Yes, Revis should shut down Ocho Cino…but Cinci has other options.  Ultimately, I expect Cinci D and Benson to win this game for the Bengals.  This is the same Bengals team that swept the Steelers and Ravens.  This spread should be somewhere between 4.5 – 6.  The only reason it is -2 is the week 17 game that didn’t matter.  If you really believe in the Jets go re-watch the game they played in Week 15 against Atlanta with Ryan playing his first game back.  And Atlanta’s D is fairly bad…Cinci’s is not. 

**as a side note I have a small bet on Bama -4 tonight.

Not a good season, I actually lost at much this season as I won the last two.  Hopefully the playoffs will get 2010 started on the right track.

Season Record:

O:  131-132-4: (-17.03)

S:  91-91-4: (-13.03)

T:  40-41-0: (-4.0)

I will update my record at season’s end.  I am in the process of getting a new personal computer as mine has viruses that make it unusable. 

Sides

1.5 units

Chiefs +10:  The chiefs offense has been a lot better with Charles, Bowe, and Chambers.  The Broncos D has been solid and will continue to play solid but the offense has no receivers and buckhalter is hurt.  There is very little talent on the Broncos offense and 10 points is too much for a division rivalry. 

1.0

NE +7:  I am confused by this spread.  I expect the Pats starters to play this game and try to get the #3 seed.  This is too many points and the Texans are known to choke.  If the Pats starters play this spread is just crazy.  I think this spread should be even or maybe at best Texans -3.  I’ll stick with the Pats starters playing to win. 

.5 units

Jax +2:  Yes, Cleveland has been playing better but they are still a bad football team.  Jax is just better.  MJD will go straight through the Browns D, and Derrick Anderson will not lead the Browns to enough points for them to win.

Phili +3:  Phili has been playing awesome football.  Everyone has been talking about the Boys beating the Saints and the Skins but the Eagles should be the talk of the NFC.  If the Eagles didn’t just lose their center this would be a much bigger play for me, but I am always concerned when teams lose their center.

Chi -3 (-120):  Cutler will try to end on a good note for Chicago.  He needs to show he was worth the trade and their is no better way after having an awful season to win your last two games and give the franchise the hope they are searching for.  Cutler should be able to tourch the Lions worst pass D. 

NYG +9:  I am banking on the Giants playing with a lot of passion after last week disaster against the Panthers.  If they play with passion they will matchup well with a Vikings team that is in complete dissaray.  yes, I am saying complete dissaray.  Farve and Childress are having major problems and the D has a lot of injuries. 

Oak +10.5:  Baltimore offense has not been great this season excluding a couple game, most recently against Detroit and Chicago two of the worst D’s in the NFL.  Oakland’s pass D is great, and Oakland has been playing well at home.  yes, Ray Rice and McGahee will be very effective but ultimately Oakland at home should keep this close.  Oakland in the second half of the season has been a solid team and 10 is a lot for a home team. 

Zona -3 (-105):  If Minn loses this is an awesome spread for Zona, b/c if Minn loses and the Eagles lose then Zona gets the #2 seeds.  If not, I think Leinart will play well and I think the Cardinals scrubs are better than the Packers

Totals

.5

Indy/Buff over 32.5:  Too low.  I mean I really don’t care what two teams are playing.  The Fitzpatrick lead Bills should be able to score some points, and the Bills D can not stop the run.  Donald Brown should have a big day.

Vince Young is crap.  Sorry for the short reasons.  On vacation and my computer is broken has some mother f’ing virus that makes it 100% unusable so I’m borrowing my brothers.

Sides

1.0 units

Atl -9:  Brian Brohm is starting for the Bills…let me repeat that Brian Brohm.

Jax +10 (-120):  NE is the most overrated team in the NFL.  Jax has been playing well of late and should keep this one close.

Dvr +7:  Phili is known to overlook AFC opponents.  This game means everything to Denver.  If the Boys win against the Skns this week then Phili’s season is next week against the Cowboys.

NYJ +5.5:  No Garcon, Revis on Wayne.  Jets run well, Colts don’t stop the run that well.  Game should play close.  Means nothing to the Colts

.5

Wash +7:  Haynesworth is going to play angry.  That is not a good thing

Det +14:  SF just shouldn’t give 14 points to anyone.

KC +13.5:  Eh.  KC’s offense is fairly good with Charles and Bowe in the lineup at the same time

Oak +3 (Even):  Cleveland is giving points?  does it matter who they are playing.  Oakland just beat Denver in Denver.  They beat pitt, and just seem more impressive than Cleveland

Totals

.5

Kc/Cinci over 40:  I like the KC offesnes w. Bowe and Charles

St. L /Zona over 43.5:  Warner likes to prove a point against his old club

Dvr/Phili under 42:  Both d’s are underrated, and will play hard in the poor weather

Oak/Clev under 38:  Bad weather, bad offenses.

NYJ/Indy under 40.5:  No Garcon, wayne shadowed by Revis, means colts struggle.

1.0 units

Titans -3:  This is an easy play.  It is either the Titans or nothing here.  Home team on a holiday night game with desperation.  SD has the #2 seed in the AFC and this game just isnt that important to them.  It means everything to the Titans.  This spread is also extremely suspicious.  SD who has beaten Dal and NY on the road and won 9 in a row is getting 3?  Weird.  Anyway, tennessee will have a strong crowd and play with utter desperation.

I am on vacation this week and have limited computer access.  I will post results next week and will do my best to post my games as soon as practical.

.5 units

Wash +3:   I have a theory that even teams who have nothing to play for get up for Monday night.  Sometimes teams are just out-talented but I really don’t believe the Giants are that much if any more talented than the Skins.  Both teams will come to play as players love to showcase skills on Monday night when everyone is watching and this is a division rivalry game.  Washington has been playing very solid ball the last 4-5 weeks and I expect the home crowd to push them to a win.

Wash/NYG under 43.5:  Washington has one of the best pass defenses and the Giants struggle to move the ball on the ground.  These heated NFC East division rivalries are usually low scoring physical games…especially in the cold.  Washington has lost thebest RB’s and starting TE.  Yes, they have been better offensively but I still don’t think they are that good an offense